Description: A paper entitled “A Regime-Switching Model of Long-Term Stock Returns” appears in the April 2001 issue of the North American Actuarial Journal. In it, Dr. Mary Hardy describes a model for future equity returns and some reasons why that model might better reflect real equity price movements than the often-used lognormal model. The purpose of this article is to apply a two-regime model to variable annnuity GMDB pricing and compare the results to those from a lognormal model.

Description: Decomposes guaranteed minimum maturity benefit option into a basket of components, and values each component with both a Black-Scholes model and a regime-switching GARCH model. Performs sensitivity analysis on dynamic lapse assumption.

Description: The winners of the Investment Section's 2016 Asset Allocation Contest are announced, along with a recap of the contest and market performance.

Description: Uses Blackrock's macroeconomic and style factors in asset allocation examples for an insurance portfolio and a pension portfolio.

Description: The article reviews recent investment performance of stable value compared to other low risk alternatives, discusses current criticisms of the option, and concludes that they are not well founded. Criticism reflects a lack of openness to the full range of stable value contracts available and manager bias against traditional GICs, not a real lack of wrap capacity. Stable value continues to be the pareto superior low risk option.

Description: By necessity, attributions of financial processes require approximations. Tools used for approximations include Aumann-Shapley, time step, step-through, average step-through, partial derivative, and average partial derivative. Significantly non-linear paths can cause problems during attribution. Time (theta) and market factors must be handled concurrently. Typically contractual factors can be handled separately. Average Step-Through, Aumann-Shapley and Aumann-Shapley-3 points perform the best given the same time period. Attribution should be done with fairly small time steps as opposed to using a lot of points in the Aumann-Shapley calculation, but using Aumann-Shapley-3 points as a last step has some advantages.

Description: Introduction to option pricing using Black-Scholes. Discussion on the limitations of Black-Scholes and of its alternatives such as Heston. Clear, accessible explanation of key results of mathematical finance including risk-neutral valuation.

Description: Summarizes the state of US government balance sheet and defends the view that inflation will not rise sharply in the next few years.

Description: This articles describes the multi-pillar system of 1 pay as you go and 2 individual capital accounts to fund public pension plans which exists in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Description: The impact of Fed’s QE program on the financial markets has been enormous and profound. The tapering and the eventual removal of the stimulus will be equally enormous and profound, and may be disruptive. To adapt to the potential regime change in near future, some investment strategies have been proposed: (1) shorten duration to focus on the short end of the yield curve and create laddered portfolios; (2) reduce allocation to high yield bonds; (3) rotate out interest rate sensitive sectors such as utilities; and (4) use interest rate derivatives to hedge the interest rate uncertainties lying ahead. On the other hand, contrarians who see the QE program continuing may stay the course and consider (1) adding duration, (2) gaining exposure to high yield bonds, and (3) increasing allocation to utilities and telecoms.